Unser Geschäftskunde foodwatch hatte zusammen mit dem Journalisten Harald Schumann im Oktober einen Bericht über Spekulation von Banken mit Rohstoffen wie Mais oder Weizen veröffentlicht. Das Thema ist brisant, denn die Autoren stellen fest: “Mit ihren Wetten treiben Banken die Preise für Nahrungsmittel in die Höhe und machen sich mitschuldig am Hunger in der Welt.” Sie fordern daher von Finanzinstituten, die Spekulation mit Agrarrohstoffen einzustellen. Erst gestern haben die Medien erneut hierzu berichtet.
Wir wollen euch daher die Position der Triodos Bank zum Thema Spekulation mit Agrarrohstoffen mitteilen. Stellvertretend für unsere Bank schreibt hier (auf Englisch) unser niederländischer Kollege Koert Jansen, der als Fondsmanager in unserem Team für Emerging Markets (Schwellenländer) arbeitet und Experte im Bereich nachhaltiger Handel (Sustainable Trade) ist.
Durch seine Aufgabe bei der Triodos Bank arbeitet Koert unter anderem mit Fair Trade-Kaffeeproduzenten in Entwicklungs- und Schwellenländern zusammen. Hierbei fiel ihm bereits 2009 etwas auf: Der Preis für Kaffee auf den Weltmärkten schien immer weniger von den Faktoren Wetter, Angebot und Nachfrage sowie Wechselkursen erklärbar zu sein. Die Triodos Bank bat daher die Universität Utrecht, genauere Analysen durchzuführen. Und das Ergebnis: Spekulationen hatten und haben einen signifikaten Einfluss auf die Kaffeepreise.
Und wer verliert dabei? Die Kaffeeproduzenten in Entwicklungs- und Schwellenländern. Sie trifft es hart. Und was für Kaffee gilt, gilt in noch extremeren Maße für andere Agararrohstoffe, die ganz unmittelbar für die Grundernährung in Entwicklungs- und Schwellenländern eine Rolle spielen.
Aus diesem Grund wollen wir als Triodos Bank zu diesem Thema Position beziehen. Uns ist es wichtig, insbesondere große, institutionelle Investoren wie Pensionskassen und Versicherungen auf die negativen Auswirkungen von Investitionen in dem Bereich Agarrohstoffe aufmerksam zu machen und sie dadurch zu einem Umdenken zu bewegen.
Speculation on food market spells disaster for developing countries (by Koert Jansen, first published in 2009)
Since their creation in the 19th century, the commodity futures market have always played a key role in the different commodity chains. This is where market players are hedging-off their price risks with each other. By doing so, they have created a transparent price setting platform for raw materials such as aluminium, gold and copper, but also those for agricultural products like corn, rice, maize, sugar and coffee. Peruvian coffee farmers, cocoa farmers from Ivory Coast, South African owners of gold mines and oil barons from the Middle East all keep a close eye on the commodity futures markets in New York and London. That is where the price on which they base their day-to-day decision-making emerges.
Take the Peruvian coffee farmer. Should he sell his coffee today or wait a while? Plant new coffee bushes now or delay until next year? And will he be able to repay the loan he will have to take out to pay for them in time?
Until a few years ago, these prices came about on the basis of real market factors: rain and drought, yield per hectare, world stocks, exchange rates and consumer demand. Our coffee farmer could usually reason out why the price moved as it did. Frost in Brazil? That would seriously affect world coffee production – and so the price would rise.
But then, to his amazement (and that of other farmers and traders), coffee prices started to behave less and less according to the logic of supply and demand. To get to the bottom of what was causing this, Triodos Bank commissioned Utrecht University to conduct some research into price movements on the coffee market in the last twenty years. It revealed that, since 2004, price movements have increasingly been determined by financial speculation.
This relatively new form of speculation is a direct consequence of the arrival, through so-called index funds, of institutional investors such as pension funds and other major investors, onto the commodity futures market. Investing through index funds is popular: the volume of trade from index funds has risen in the last five years from 13 billion to over 300 billion dollars. Investors who use index funds buy a “basket” of different raw material futures contracts and speculate on a general price rise. The result is that the price movements of various raw materials go up as a group more often, without this having any foundation in actual economic factors. Besides this, due to their one-sided purchasing behaviour –geared to price rises– investors in index funds create an upwards price effect.
What does this mean for our Peruvian coffee farmer? The weather forecast in Brazil is less and less relevant to the price of his coffee. Instead, the price movement of other commodities such as oil has become more important. Added to that, the direction it takes is increasingly being determined by the total amount of speculative money investors are putting into raw materials in this way.
Such a development, in which prices of raw materials can largely be determined by players outside the production chain, produces significant social consequences. Just think of the impact it makes on 17 to 20 million coffee farmers and their cooperatives, all of whom have to make decisions every day based on the prices on the commodity future markets in New York and London. Coffee farmers who decide to start cultivating more hectares of coffee because prices are high now, more than ever run the risk that the price has fallen sharply by the time they can harvest their crop, because there is no actual corresponding increase in demand.
The greater role played by speculation is not limited to coffee. The conclusions of a recently-published report by the UN Special Rapporteur on the Right to Food, Olivier De Schutter, could not be clearer. In his report, De Schutter shows that the speculative bubble is driving up food prices, such as those of maize, rice, corn and cocoa. The consequences for developing countries, in particular those that have to import food to feed their population, are disastrous. Food is barely affordable, or not at all, for large numbers of the population. De Schutter warns of a new food crisis similar to the one in 2008, when food riots broke out all over the world.
Financial products that have no connection to the real economy lead sooner or later to major problems. That is the hard lesson of the crisis in the financial sector. Triodos Bank argues that major investors should stop investing in index funds. There is a need for a national and international debate on more transparency and balance in the commodity futures markets, because major speculative investors have no place in commodity futures markets.













